BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Bluebird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Western Bluebird in New Mexico has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Bluebird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Bluebird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Western Bluebird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 244% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.24–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+244%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 244% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.24–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.233.2
20261.70.233.2
20271.70.233.2
20281.70.243.2
20291.70.243.2

Western Bluebird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Western Bluebird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Taylor2120121993
Reserve1320231993
Pecos1120171973
Vallecitos920181994
Stinking Lk.719991992
Bluewater Lake720211999
Cebolla620231973
Torreon620231991
Claunch620001977
Farley519891989
Ojo Sarco420241968
Dulce420242000
Angel Fire420021992
Aztec419891989
La Cienega320221971
Mt. Taylor 2320242014
Pinon320241992
Nageesi220231980
Horse Mtn220241968
Magdalena220011999
La Plata219911990
Emory Pass220231994
Claunch 2220242001
Fence Lake120241975
Cooley Lake119681968

Western Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.