BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Bluebird Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Western Bluebird in Utah has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-48%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Bluebird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Bluebird in Utah. See the full index history below.

Western Bluebird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Utah is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Utah is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.460.000.96
20270.460.000.96
20280.460.000.96
20290.460.000.96
20300.460.000.96

Western Bluebird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Western Bluebird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La Sal 21220062003
Bryce Canyon920251990
Dragerton619981969
Shivwitz620152014
Jericho Junction619971997
La Sal 3520252009
Blanding520251994
Willow Creek420012000
Newcastle420221998
Escalante420242019
Moquith Mtn420241987
Navajo Lake320241968
Dixie Nf320211993
Glen Canyon320232014
Pine Creek320251997
La Sal219991996
Ferron220162016
Bicknell220122006
Monticello220252003
Canyonlands219961996
Beck119721972
Altonah120052004
Goshen120172017
Castleton119761976
Boulder120251991

Western Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.