BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Bluebird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Western Bluebird in Arizona has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Bluebird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Bluebird in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Western Bluebird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.8 (95% range 1.1–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.8 (95% range 1.1–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.71.04.5
20272.81.04.5
20282.81.14.5
20292.81.14.5
20302.81.14.5

Western Bluebird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Western Bluebird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawmill3320141988
Happy Jack2920251977
The Gap2719761976
Sprucedale2220251992
Pinetop1820221993
Alpine1820251992
Aztec Peak1619781974
Tonto Vill.1320251992
Maine1220251992
Tsaile1120231993
Mormon Lake719751968
Cow Springs720221992
Blue619911974
Cutter 2620182018
Williams620251993
Skull Valley620221997
Black Mesa419951988
Patagonia419971997
Dry Park420251992
Forest Lakes420251992
Hunt320171976
Page320191995
Mt Trumbull219931980
House Rock220221968
Round Rock219891968

Western Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.