BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray-cheeked Thrush Population Analysis

TurdidaeForest birdsCatharus minimus

Gray-cheeked Thrush has surged: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+167%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Gray-cheeked Thrush

The Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus) is a North American member of the Thrushes (Turdidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–11 in long (15–28 cm) — a medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 101 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 3 states, most concentrated in the BCR 4.
Family
Turdidae · Forest birds

Notable Gray-cheeked Thrush TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray-cheeked Thrush has surged in surveyed states: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Gray-cheeked Thrush Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.08–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.08–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.080.35
20270.210.080.35
20280.220.080.35
20290.220.080.35
20300.220.080.35

Where the Gray-cheeked Thrush Is Detected

BBS routes recording Gray-cheeked Thrush, sized by most recent count.

Gray-cheeked Thrush Population Trend by State

Gray-cheeked Thrush population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-54%198299
Maineinsufficient datan/a1
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a1

Gray-cheeked Thrush Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Gray-cheeked Thrush population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-6%198522
BCR 3+393%19973
BCR 4-55%198261
Northern Pacific Rainforest-82%198513

Gray-cheeked Thrush Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 166% since 1982.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.