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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray-cheeked Thrush Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Gray-cheeked Thrush in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-58%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray-cheeked Thrush Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray-cheeked Thrush has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Gray-cheeked Thrush Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in Alaska is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in Alaska is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.70.1311
20265.60.0411
20275.50.0011
20285.40.0011
20295.40.0011

Gray-cheeked Thrush Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Gray-cheeked Thrush in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gweek River10420021994
Nome7520231993
Tupuknuk7119951995
Kugarak (Short)3719871986
Kobuk River (Short)3419921991
Monahan3320211983
Copper River3220111994
Unalakleet River2920241999
Salmon Lake2820241993
Skilak Lake2419851982
Kodiak2419841983
Mt. Fairplay2420241993
Lake Louise2020141993
Dillingham (Short)2019841984
Council1920241993
King Salmon1820241993
Red Dog1820241995
Selawik (Short)1719871986
Maclaren1520241982
Bear Creek1519911986
Dillingham1520191994
Paxson Lake1519971991
Cantwell1420211982
Thompson Pas1420241983
Chicken1420241992

Gray-cheeked Thrush Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.