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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray-cheeked Thrush In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 2 has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-5%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Gray-cheeked Thrush In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 6.6–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 6.6–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025206.435
2026216.435
2027216.535
2028216.635
2029216.635

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gweek RiverALASKA1042002
NomeALASKA752023
TupuknukALASKA711995
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA371987
Salmon LakeALASKA282024
KodiakALASKA241984
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA201984
CouncilALASKA192024
King SalmonALASKA182024
Selawik (Short)ALASKA171987
DillinghamALASKA152019
St. Mary'SALASKA142014
Cape NomeALASKA112024
Goodnews BayALASKA112005
Togiak RiverALASKA102005
Kanektok RivALASKA82005
TellerALASKA72024
Katmai N.P.ALASKA52022
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA41994
Kodiak 2ALASKA22024
KotzebueALASKA22024
ChiniakALASKA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.