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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray-cheeked Thrush In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-55%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray-cheeked Thrush has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Gray-cheeked Thrush In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 5.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.70.0011
20274.60.0011
20284.50.0011
20294.40.0011
20304.20.0011

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA341992
Unalakleet RiverALASKA292024
MaclarenALASKA272025
Mt. FairplayALASKA252025
Skilak LakeALASKA241985
CantwellALASKA222025
ChickenALASKA162025
Bear CreekALASKA151991
SavageALASKA152025
Paxson LakeALASKA151997
MonahanALASKA132025
PetersvilleALASKA122025
Chatanika RALASKA112025
Nicholai SlALASKA102025
Lake LouiseALASKA92025
ColdfootALASKA92025
Anvik RiverALASKA92024
ToklatALASKA82024
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA72025
EagleALASKA62025
WasillaALASKA61983
Goose BayALASKA51982
MatanuskaALASKA51983
KalifonskyALASKA41982
Nabesna RoadALASKA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.