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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray-cheeked Thrush In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-58%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray-cheeked Thrush has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Gray-cheeked Thrush In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.3 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.3 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.80.0011
20264.70.0011
20274.50.0011
20284.40.0011
20294.30.0011

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA341992
MonahanALASKA332021
Unalakleet RiverALASKA292024
Skilak LakeALASKA241985
Mt. FairplayALASKA242024
Lake LouiseALASKA202014
MaclarenALASKA152024
Bear CreekALASKA151991
Paxson LakeALASKA151997
CantwellALASKA142021
ChickenALASKA142024
Chatanika RALASKA122023
SavageALASKA122024
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA112024
Anvik RiverALASKA92024
EagleALASKA82024
ToklatALASKA82024
WasillaALASKA61983
PetersvilleALASKA62024
ColdfootALASKA62024
Goose BayALASKA51982
MatanuskaALASKA51983
ChistochinaALASKA42024
KalifonskyALASKA41982
RubyALASKA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.