Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Gray-cheeked Thrush In BCR 4
Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1982.
-58%Since 1982
61Routes In Region
44Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Gray-cheeked Thrush has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1982.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.3 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-3%Change by 2029
4.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–1195% range
±14.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.8 | 0.00 | 11 |
| 2026 | 4.7 | 0.00 | 11 |
| 2027 | 4.5 | 0.00 | 11 |
| 2028 | 4.4 | 0.00 | 11 |
| 2029 | 4.3 | 0.00 | 11 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Kobuk River (Short) | ALASKA | 34 | 1992 |
| Monahan | ALASKA | 33 | 2021 |
| Unalakleet River | ALASKA | 29 | 2024 |
| Skilak Lake | ALASKA | 24 | 1985 |
| Mt. Fairplay | ALASKA | 24 | 2024 |
| Lake Louise | ALASKA | 20 | 2014 |
| Maclaren | ALASKA | 15 | 2024 |
| Bear Creek | ALASKA | 15 | 1991 |
| Paxson Lake | ALASKA | 15 | 1997 |
| Cantwell | ALASKA | 14 | 2021 |
| Chicken | ALASKA | 14 | 2024 |
| Chatanika R | ALASKA | 12 | 2023 |
| Savage | ALASKA | 12 | 2024 |
| Caribou Mtn. | ALASKA | 11 | 2024 |
| Anvik River | ALASKA | 9 | 2024 |
| Eagle | ALASKA | 8 | 2024 |
| Toklat | ALASKA | 8 | 2024 |
| Wasilla | ALASKA | 6 | 1983 |
| Petersville | ALASKA | 6 | 2024 |
| Coldfoot | ALASKA | 6 | 2024 |
| Goose Bay | ALASKA | 5 | 1982 |
| Matanuska | ALASKA | 5 | 1983 |
| Chistochina | ALASKA | 4 | 2024 |
| Kalifonsky | ALASKA | 4 | 1982 |
| Ruby | ALASKA | 4 | 2024 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.