BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray-cheeked Thrush In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Gray-cheeked Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-82%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray-cheeked Thrush has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Gray-cheeked Thrush In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 88% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-88%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray-cheeked Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 88% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.45
20260.060.000.44
20270.040.000.43
20280.030.000.42
20290.020.000.41

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Gray-cheeked Thrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper RiverALASKA322011
Thompson PasALASKA142024
CordovaALASKA52022
SewardALASKA31984
Sheep MtnALASKA32017
Mitkof IsleALASKA22002
HyderALASKA22000
JuneauALASKA12023
Moose PassALASKA11983
HopeALASKA12016
Harlequin L.ALASKA12019
Chichagof IsALASKA12015
Stikine RiverALASKA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.