BirdAnalyst
Guild · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Vermont

All statesVermont

70 species in this guild. As a group they are -3%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Vermont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Vermont is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 4.0–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Vermont is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 4.0–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.04.15.9
20275.04.15.9
20285.04.15.8
20294.94.15.8
20304.94.05.8

Member Species In Vermont

Forest birds species in Vermont.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Pine SiskinFringillidae-96%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-87%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-87%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-83%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-82%
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae-81%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-81%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae-78%
Canada WarblerParulidae-73%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-71%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-69%
Purple FinchFringillidae-65%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae-59%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae-52%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-42%
American GoldfinchFringillidae-40%
VeeryTurdidae-39%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae-37%
American RobinTurdidae-36%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae-32%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-30%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-27%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-26%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-17%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-10%
Blue JayCorvidae-10%
Blackpoll WarblerParulidae-10%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-7%
Nashville WarblerParulidae-6%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-6%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae-5%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae+6%
American RedstartParulidae+10%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+22%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+22%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+33%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+35%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae+37%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+37%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+45%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+52%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+82%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+82%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+85%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+98%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+105%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+124%
OvenbirdParulidae+143%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+158%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+190%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+194%
Magnolia WarblerParulidae+200%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+255%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+261%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+271%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+307%
Mourning WarblerParulidae+312%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+324%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae+355%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+369%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+390%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+457%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+523%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+642%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+772%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+863%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+995%
Northern ParulaParulidae17×
Pine WarblerParulidae26×
Tufted TitmouseParidae53×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.