BirdAnalyst
Guild · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Vermont

All statesVermont

48 species in this guild. As a group they are +8%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Vermont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Vermont is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 4.2–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Vermont is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 4.2–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.14.26.0
20265.14.26.0
20275.14.26.0
20285.14.26.0
20295.14.26.0

Member Species In Vermont

Forest birds species in Vermont.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Wood ThrushTurdidae-85%
Canada WarblerParulidae-80%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae-78%
VeeryTurdidae-43%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-43%
American RobinTurdidae-39%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-36%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae-32%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-32%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-15%
Nashville WarblerParulidae-13%
Blackpoll WarblerParulidae-10%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-7%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae-7%
American RedstartParulidae+5%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae+6%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+8%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+9%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae+26%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+37%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+42%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+45%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+91%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+94%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+107%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+125%
OvenbirdParulidae+144%
Magnolia WarblerParulidae+150%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+156%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+168%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+180%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+186%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+238%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+285%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+299%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+316%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+349%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae+355%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+361%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+400%
Mourning WarblerParulidae+502%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+568%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+590%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+795%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+804%
Northern ParulaParulidae15×
Pine WarblerParulidae22×
Tufted TitmouseParidae48×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.