BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Arizona

All statesArizona

84 species in this guild. As a group they are -2%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Arizona is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.63–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Arizona is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.63–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.652.0
20271.30.652.0
20281.30.642.0
20291.30.642.0
20301.30.632.0

Member Species In Arizona

Forest birds species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Lewis's WoodpeckerPicidae-94%
Pinyon JayCorvidae-93%
Lazuli BuntingCardinalidae-87%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-84%
Orange-crowned WarblerParulidae-83%
Cassin's FinchFringillidae-83%
Mountain BluebirdTurdidae-77%
Rivoli's HummingbirdTrochilidae-76%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-70%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-68%
Elegant TrogonTrogonidae-68%
Townsend's SolitaireTurdidae-67%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-65%
American Three-toed WoodpeckerPicidae-65%
Juniper TitmouseParidae-64%
Red-naped SapsuckerPicidae-59%
Black-chinned HummingbirdTrochilidae-56%
Blue-throated Mountain-gemTrochilidae-49%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-39%
Scott's OrioleIcteridae-39%
Rock WrenTroglodytidae-38%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae-30%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-19%
Band-tailed PigeonColumbidae-18%
Ladder-backed WoodpeckerPicidae-14%
BushtitAegithalidae-13%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-11%
Canyon WrenTroglodytidae-11%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-10%
Red CrossbillFringillidae-1%
Hooded OrioleIcteridae+4%
Mexican JayCorvidae+10%
Gray VireoVireonidae+12%
Western BluebirdTurdidae+14%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae+14%
Varied BuntingCardinalidae+15%
Bridled TitmouseParidae+41%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+42%
Broad-tailed HummingbirdTrochilidae+43%
Woodhouse's Scrub-JayCorvidae+44%
Mountain ChickadeeParidae+45%
Bell's VireoVireonidae+50%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+54%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+62%
Black-throated Gray WarblerParulidae+71%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+72%
Steller's JayCorvidae+80%
Anna's HummingbirdTrochilidae+80%
Pine SiskinFringillidae+83%
Plumbeous VireoVireonidae+85%
Painted RedstartParulidae+95%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+104%
Grace's WarblerParulidae+108%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+114%
Clark's NutcrackerCorvidae+120%
Black-headed GrosbeakCardinalidae+123%
Williamson's SapsuckerPicidae+133%
Hutton's VireoVireonidae+138%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+143%
Hepatic TanagerCardinalidae+145%
Lesser GoldfinchFringillidae+145%
Broad-billed HummingbirdTrochilidae+145%
Arizona WoodpeckerPicidae+149%
Virginia's WarblerParulidae+152%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+166%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+170%
Pygmy NuthatchSittidae+173%
Acorn WoodpeckerPicidae+194%
Costa's HummingbirdTrochilidae+196%
Bullock's OrioleIcteridae+208%
PyrrhuloxiaCardinalidae+236%
Spotted TowheePasserellidae+250%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+257%
Yellow-eyed JuncoPasserellidae+269%
American RobinTurdidae+339%
Red-faced WarblerParulidae+368%
Olive WarblerPeucedramidae+377%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+417%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+432%
Green-tailed TowheePasserellidae+627%
Warbling VireoVireonidae13×
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae15×
Western TanagerCardinalidae17×
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae27×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.