BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Band-tailed Pigeon in Arizona has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Band-tailed Pigeon Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has surged in Arizona: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Arizona is projected to rise about 207% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+207%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Arizona is projected to rise about 207% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.95
20260.280.000.95
20270.270.000.94
20280.270.000.94
20290.260.000.94

Band-tailed Pigeon Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinetop2920221993
Mormon Lake919741968
Patagonia820051970
Maine720041992
Mt. Graham620221995
Prescott320221974
Tonto Vill.320191994
Portal220241975
Rucker220001993
Flagstaff220131999
Aztec Peak219781976
Blue219841980
Alpine220222007
Carr Mtn220072000
Peña Blanca120241994
Dry Park120002000
Williams120132007
Forest Lakes119941994
Sunizona 2120172017
Happy Jack120041988
Sprucedale119991994

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.