BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Band-tailed Pigeon in Oregon has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Band-tailed Pigeon Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Band-tailed Pigeon in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Oregon is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.42–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Oregon is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.42–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.364.4
20272.40.384.4
20282.40.394.4
20292.40.404.4
20302.40.424.5

Band-tailed Pigeon Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fisher5420101997
Salado3920251968
Harlan 22320252011
Santiam2220251995
Adair2220251974
Harlan2220092006
Klickitat Mt2119961993
Waldport2020011992
Umpqua1920251968
Winberry1920231968
Lobster Creek1920252025
Nicolai Mtn.1620251993
Riley Peak1520161994
Fisher 21520252017
Hazel Camp1420221975
Wedderburn1320251970
Scio1320251971
Lorane1320251993
Shellrock1220172001
Canby1220251999
Bull Run1020252007
Elkton1020251972
Coquille1020251994
Emigrant Lake 2820252005
Secret Val820221989

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.