BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

Band-tailed Pigeon in Colorado has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-94%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Band-tailed Pigeon Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has collapsed in Colorado: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Colorado is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±408.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±408.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Colorado is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±408.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.81
20260.000.000.81
20270.000.000.81
20280.000.000.81
20290.000.000.81

Band-tailed Pigeon Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moffat1719981980
Dolores1319751968
Cokedale820212004
Paonia720182000
Cortez719921992
Yampa620232001
Falfa619801972
Gold Hill620122008
Thomasville520051998
Uncompahgre419971993
Steamboat L.420112010
Dolores Riv420021998
Wet Mtns.419931993
Gardner419991998
Rollins Pass320012001
Mount Evans220242001
Trail Ridge Road220052004
Buford220081994
Cheesman Lk220111993
Delta220091986
Marshall Pas220122012
Gribbles Prk220242015
Aspen120041979
Colona120141989
Lost Lake120052000

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacalifornianevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.