BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Analysis

ColumbidaeForest birdsPatagioenas fasciata

Band-tailed Pigeon has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
346RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Band-tailed Pigeon

The Band-tailed Pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) is a North American member of the Pigeons & Doves (Columbidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–14.5 in long (15–37 cm) — a plump-bodied bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 346 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 10 states, most concentrated in the Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Family
Columbidae · Forest birds

Notable Band-tailed Pigeon TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has risen sharply in surveyed states: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.13–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.13–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.130.45
20270.290.130.45
20280.290.130.45
20290.290.130.45
20300.290.130.45

Where the Band-tailed Pigeon Is Detected

BBS routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon, sized by most recent count.

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend by State

Band-tailed Pigeon population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaskainsufficient datan/a3
Arizona-18%197021
California+87%1970151
Colorado-93%197535
Nevadainsufficient datan/a1
New Mexico-79%197217
Oregon-28%197055
Texasinsufficient datan/a2
Utah-96%19809
Washington-10%197052

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Band-tailed Pigeon population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest+6%1970122
Great Basin-75%197028
Sierra Nevada-53%197236
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-89%197154
Coastal California+57%197173
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-91%19783
Sierra Madre Occidental-43%197023
Chihuahuan Desert-93%19715

Band-tailed Pigeon Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 72% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.