BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Band-tailed Pigeon in Washington has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Band-tailed Pigeon Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Band-tailed Pigeon in Washington. See the full index history below.

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Washington is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.07–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Washington is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.07–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.074.5
20262.30.074.5
20272.30.074.5
20282.30.074.5
20292.30.074.5

Band-tailed Pigeon Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raymond4120211993
Raymond 23820242022
Ozette3220241971
Port Angeles2720241970
Pe Ell2620231993
Montesand2520241987
Taholah2520221969
Carnation1620231988
Hurricane Rg1520241994
Harrington1119721972
Index919711968
Bunker Hill920221968
Twisp819981975
South Elma820241975
Nighthawk820182018
Kamilche720241968
Camas720081981
Snowden720241971
Newhalem520231968
Cougar520211969
Neilton519751975
Concrete520232013
Ilwaco420241975
Mendota 3420242005
Glacier320241988

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.