BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Band-tailed Pigeon in California has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Band-tailed Pigeon Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has risen sharply in California: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in California is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in California is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.24.7
20262.91.24.7
20273.01.24.7
20283.01.24.7
20293.01.24.7

Band-tailed Pigeon Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fallsvale4419811970
Pescadero4120241992
Redwood N.P.2820101995
Lake Success2619961975
Fairfax2520241972
Waterman Gap2120241972
Cohasset1920241972
Ukiah1920112003
Elsinore Mtn1820241970
Coyote1820241972
Honeydew1620171968
Coalinga1620072007
Carmel Val1620241973
Mt Baldy1620241970
Cottage Spgs1519691969
Tres Pinos1520012001
Bass Lake1220181972
Point Reyes1220231970
Mccloud1220211979
Korbel1220241972
Lake Hemet 21220181992
Dirigio1220141999
Mt Laguna1119871970
Tahoe Nf1119931987
Holmes1020221970

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.