BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Band-tailed Pigeon in California has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+87%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Band-tailed Pigeon Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has surged in California: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in California is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.3–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in California is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.3–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.34.7
20273.01.34.7
20283.01.34.7
20293.01.34.7
20303.01.34.8

Band-tailed Pigeon Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carmel Val4420251973
Fallsvale4419811970
Pescadero4020251992
Redwood N.P.2820101995
Lake Success2619961975
Fairfax2520241972
Gold Hill2520251989
Crescent Cty2420251972
Waterman Gap2320251972
Westville1920251971
Ukiah1920112003
Honeydew1620171968
Coalinga1620072007
Mt Baldy1620241970
Coyote1620251972
Cottage Spgs1519691969
Tres Pinos1520012001
Korbel1520251972
Point Reyes1320251970
Bass Lake1220181972
Mccloud1220211979
Lake Hemet 21220181992
Dirigio1220141999
Mt Laguna1119871970
Laytonville1120251972

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.