BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Band-tailed Pigeon in New Mexico has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-79%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Band-tailed Pigeon Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has collapsed in New Mexico: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in New Mexico is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±371.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±371.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in New Mexico is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±371.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.000.72
20270.240.000.72
20280.230.000.72
20290.230.000.71
20300.230.000.71

Band-tailed Pigeon Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deming719681968
Ojo Sarco620251968
Reserve620251993
Angel Fire 2420212005
Cloudcroft420251975
Mt. Taylor220041995
Emory Pass220251993
Mt. Taylor 2220212016
Cebolla119951977
Grenville119821982
Vicks Peak120241995
Bluewater Lake120161999
Gallinas120171993
Carrizozo120121978
Angel Fire119971993
Mcgaffey120102010
Vallecitos120031995

Band-tailed Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.