BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Band-tailed Pigeon In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Band-tailed Pigeon in Coastal California has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+36%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Band-tailed Pigeon in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Coastal California is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.1–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Coastal California is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.1–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.62.07.3
20264.72.07.3
20274.72.07.3
20284.72.17.4
20294.82.17.4

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA441981
PescaderoCALIFORNIA412024
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA261996
FairfaxCALIFORNIA252024
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA212024
CohassetCALIFORNIA192024
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA182024
CoyoteCALIFORNIA182024
CoalingaCALIFORNIA162007
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA162024
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA162024
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA152001
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA122023
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA122018
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA111987
ValyermoCALIFORNIA102019
MorenoCALIFORNIA92019
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA92011
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA82013
AuburnCALIFORNIA81973
MoragaCALIFORNIA82024
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA61973
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA62023
ReddingCALIFORNIA61983
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA62017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.