BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Band-tailed Pigeon In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Band-tailed Pigeon in Coastal California has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+57%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has risen sharply in Coastal California: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Band-tailed Pigeon In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 2.2–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 2.2–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.72.17.3
20274.72.17.3
20284.72.17.4
20294.82.27.4
20304.82.27.4

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA442025
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA441981
PescaderoCALIFORNIA402025
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA261996
FairfaxCALIFORNIA252024
Gold HillCALIFORNIA252025
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA232025
CoalingaCALIFORNIA162007
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA162024
CoyoteCALIFORNIA162025
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA152001
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA132025
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA122018
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA111987
ValyermoCALIFORNIA102019
MorenoCALIFORNIA92019
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA92011
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA82013
AuburnCALIFORNIA81973
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA61973
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA62023
ReddingCALIFORNIA61983
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA62017
Glen Ellen 3CALIFORNIA62025
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA51978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.