BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Band-tailed Pigeon In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Band-tailed Pigeon in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Band-tailed Pigeon in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Band-tailed Pigeon In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.001.9
20270.560.001.9
20280.550.001.8
20290.540.001.8
20300.520.001.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinetopARIZONA292022
Mormon LakeARIZONA91974
PatagoniaARIZONA82005
MaineARIZONA72004
ReserveNEW-MEXICO62025
FlagstaffARIZONA22013
PrescottARIZONA22025
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
BlueARIZONA21984
Mt. GrahamARIZONA22025
Carr MtnARIZONA22007
PortalARIZONA22025
RuckerARIZONA22000
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO22025
Peña BlancaARIZONA12024
WilliamsARIZONA12013
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12025
Forest LakesARIZONA11994
AlpineARIZONA12025
Happy JackARIZONA12004
SprucedaleARIZONA11999
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12017
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.