BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Band-tailed Pigeon In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Band-tailed Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-96%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±486.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±486.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±486.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.200.000.80
20250.200.000.80
20260.190.000.79
20270.190.000.79
20280.180.000.78

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DemingNEW-MEXICO71968
Bear MtnTEXAS41993
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12012
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12023
ValentineTEXAS11986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.