BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Band-tailed Pigeon In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Band-tailed Pigeon in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Band-tailed Pigeon In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Great Basin is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Great Basin is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.52
20260.040.000.52
20270.040.000.51
20280.030.000.51
20290.030.000.50

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarringtonWASHINGTON111972
IndexWASHINGTON91971
NubieberCALIFORNIA82016
TwispWASHINGTON81998
NighthawkWASHINGTON82018
TionestaCALIFORNIA72017
SnowdenWASHINGTON72024
NewhalemWASHINGTON52023
ConcreteWASHINGTON52023
BartleCALIFORNIA42021
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA42021
Mt HoodOREGON42024
GardnervilleNEVADA32011
GlacierWASHINGTON32024
LeavenworthWASHINGTON32022
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON32018
Modoc PointOREGON22009
KendallWASHINGTON22024
White ChuckWASHINGTON21996
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA12006
Badger CreekOREGON12008
NewcastleUTAH11999
RonaldWASHINGTON12023
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON12000
Index 2WASHINGTON12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.