BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Band-tailed Pigeon In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Band-tailed Pigeon in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Band-tailed Pigeon In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Great Basin is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Great Basin is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.51
20270.040.000.51
20280.030.000.50
20290.030.000.50
20300.030.000.49

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarringtonWASHINGTON111972
IndexWASHINGTON91971
NubieberCALIFORNIA82016
TwispWASHINGTON81998
NighthawkWASHINGTON82018
TionestaCALIFORNIA72017
BartleCALIFORNIA42021
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA42021
GardnervilleNEVADA32011
Mt HoodOREGON32025
GlacierWASHINGTON32024
LeavenworthWASHINGTON32022
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON32018
Modoc PointOREGON22009
KendallWASHINGTON22024
White ChuckWASHINGTON21996
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA12006
Badger CreekOREGON12008
NewcastleUTAH11999
NewhalemWASHINGTON12025
SnowdenWASHINGTON12025
RonaldWASHINGTON12023
Blewett PassWASHINGTON12025
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON12000
ConcreteWASHINGTON12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.