BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Band-tailed Pigeon In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Band-tailed Pigeon in Sierra Nevada has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-58%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Band-tailed Pigeon has fallen sharply in Sierra Nevada: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Band-tailed Pigeon in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.004.8
20261.30.004.7
20271.30.004.7
20281.20.004.6
20291.20.004.6

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Band-tailed Pigeon in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA151969
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA122018
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA111993
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA81981
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA82024
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA61999
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA52005
WestvilleCALIFORNIA42024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA42013
RivertonCALIFORNIA42023
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA42018
Forest HillCALIFORNIA42022
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA42024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA32019
StrawberryCALIFORNIA32017
LumberyardCALIFORNIA22024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA22008
DownievilleCALIFORNIA22024
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA22014
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA22019
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA22024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22019
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12023
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12019
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.