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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hutton's Vireo Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Hutton's Vireo in Arizona has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+40%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hutton's Vireo Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hutton's Vireo in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Hutton's Vireo Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Hutton's Vireo in Arizona is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.10–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hutton's Vireo in Arizona is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.10–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.090.59
20260.340.090.59
20270.340.090.59
20280.340.090.59
20290.350.100.60

Hutton's Vireo Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Hutton's Vireo in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Portal1020241975
Carr Mtn420181987
Rucker320091993
Patagonia220241989
Tonto Vill.220211994
Peña Blanca220241987
Sunizona119771977
Dragoon120001996
Bartlett Res120102010
Alpine119961996
Sunizona 2120192001
Prescott120221975
Mt. Graham120231999
Aztec Peak119771977
Sprucedale120072006

Hutton's Vireo Population Trend in Other States

californianew-mexicooregontexaswashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.