BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Arizona has surged: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+175%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Arizona: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Arizona is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.28–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Arizona is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.28–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.960.271.6
20260.960.271.6
20270.960.271.6
20280.960.271.6
20290.960.281.6

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 21220182016
Sahuarita920242009
Ajo 2720192011
Pomerene620221970
Bates Well620231995
Casa Grande520211991
Palo Verde 2420242014
Maine419971997
Skull Valley420241996
Palo Verde420131992
Redington420231993
Sunizona 2420192001
Quartzsite320171992
Florence319731968
Red Rock 2320242015
Wickenburg320192018
Seligman320231992
Organ Pipe220232016
Wikieup220192019
Vicksburg219891989
New River220162016
Ajo220002000
San Simon220241975
Page220132011
Greasewood219961996

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.