BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Oregon has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Oregon is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Oregon is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.002.6
20260.930.002.5
20270.890.002.5
20280.840.002.5
20290.800.002.4

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sparta4320011971
Umpqua2120241970
Twickenham2120242010
Modoc Point 22020242024
Trout Creek1520211996
Fish Lake1320241977
Warner Vally1320241993
Emigrant Lk1120011972
Umatilla1120232021
Alvord Lake1020241970
Sams Valley1020241993
Donnybrook919971997
Secret Val820221975
Bridgeport720221986
Derby719931968
Dayton720151988
Salem720241993
Modoc Point520181969
Adrian520211984
Madras520241997
Crane520241993
Ruch520231992
Pendleton420241972
Newbridge420241992
Ochoco319731973

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.