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Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in South Dakota has surged: up 394% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+394%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in South Dakota: up 394% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in South Dakota is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.04–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in South Dakota is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.04–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.030.28
20260.160.030.28
20270.160.040.29
20280.160.040.29
20290.170.040.29

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wind Cave Np520242004
Maurine320021972
Lodgepole319901990
Cottonwood220231993
Indian220091997
Volunteer220171977
Harding220042003
Marcus220102001
Rockyford120181967
S. Pioneer120061996
Railroad Butte120022002
French Creek120041997
Promise120001971
Owanka119981977
Roubaix Lk119741974
Custer120221986
Cedar Pass120211969
Reva119901989
Isabel119901990
Ardmore120051979
Lacreek119971994
Hazelrodt120212019
Silver City119991999

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.