BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Bullock's Oriole in New Mexico has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+101%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in New Mexico: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.73.6
20272.71.73.6
20282.71.83.6
20292.71.83.6
20302.71.83.6

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita1920191992
Sedan1720251994
Red Rock1420251992
Laborcita 21120252022
Aztec1119891988
Variadero1020221994
Pep920241992
Mesilla920001992
Sabinoso920211987
Gage820251968
Maljamar819771975
Hobbs820251994
La Plata820131990
Clovis720241993
San Antonio619771974
Maxwell620251996
Ojo Sarco520251968
Tucumcari519751975
La Plata 2520162014
Rosebud520251994
Bitter Lake520251994
Gallinas420251992
Sunshine Wll420251997
Valencia319971968
Cooley Lake320251968

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.