BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in New Mexico has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+91%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in New Mexico: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in New Mexico is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in New Mexico is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.73.6
20262.61.73.6
20272.71.73.6
20282.71.73.6
20292.71.83.6

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita1920191992
Sedan1220241994
Maxwell1120241996
Aztec1119891988
Variadero1020221994
Pep920241992
Mesilla920001992
Sabinoso920211987
Maljamar819771975
Laborcita 2820242022
La Plata820131990
Roswell720231970
Clovis720241993
San Antonio619771974
Hobbs620241994
Ojo Sarco520241968
Tucumcari519751975
La Plata 2520162014
Bitter Lake520231994
Red Rock520241992
Logan420241977
Grenville320241968
Salt Lake 2320242005
Valencia319971968
Caprock320241989

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.