BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Washington has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Washington. See the full index history below.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Washington is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Washington is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.24.0
20262.61.24.0
20272.61.24.0
20282.61.24.0
20292.61.24.1

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nighthawk3420241992
Yakima2720241993
Ellensburg2220241981
Twisp1220241969
Tonasket920181982
Lake Chelan820241988
Potholes720191996
Asotin620241982
Kendall620242017
Ewan620191983
Sulphur520192009
Connell420151973
Pomeroy420221992
Horn Rapids420242005
Warm Beach320161972
Ardenvoir319871968
Wapato320221978
Moses Coulee320211993
Pomona319991998
Hanford Site319961988
Arid Land Er319961988
Richland320242006
Newhalem220231970
Keller220071968
Chewelah220211978

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.