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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Kansas has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-41%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±162.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.070.000.30
20250.070.000.30
20260.060.000.30
20270.060.000.29
20280.060.000.29

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Missler519861975
Jewell220021967
Ashland220141974
Wallace220091972
Rexford120212001
Logan120121985
Gove120131981
Jewell 2120162016
Coldwater120041974
Lakin120221971
Plymell120232000
Ulysses120222000
Gray119851968
Solomon120142014

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.