BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Texas has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Texas. See the full index history below.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Texas is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Texas is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.992.7
20261.90.992.8
20271.91.002.8
20281.91.002.8
20291.91.002.8

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cactus2720211994
Valley Spgs2620051984
Plains1920241968
Girard1920231994
Rachal1720231967
Eldorado1620231975
Agua Nueva1520231969
Girvin1520241975
Dilley1520242018
Guerra1520231990
Millett 21520242013
George West1320241967
Pantex1220191974
Catarina 31120242018
Rankin1020231967
Encinal920101969
Hondo920241969
Ozona920221975
Megargel920231994
Pecos920172017
Kingsville820241967
El Sauz820231993
Sejita820241995
Stiles820241995
Dalhart820241994

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.