BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Utah has surged: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+283%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Utah: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.03–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.03–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.012.5
20261.20.012.5
20271.30.022.5
20281.30.022.5
20291.30.032.5

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Promontory1620241970
Delta1220241987
Kamas1020242003
Moab820241986
Wellington 3720242012
Leamington720171993
Jericho Junction620102006
Castleton519851974
Gandy520151997
Vernon420232010
Goose Creek Mtn.420232003
Hanna420241997
Bullfrog Bay420082008
Stock Res320191986
Iron Springs320231980
Bear River320231992
Gooseberry320241997
Wellington320022002
Newcastle320221997
Johnson Can320241991
Ant Flat-Ogden Can320231999
Jensen320241993
Moon Lake 2220232013
Oak City220241972
Beaver220241979

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.