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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Bullock's Oriole in Utah has surged: up 297% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+297%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Utah: up 297% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Utah is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.08–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Utah is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.08–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.062.5
20271.30.062.5
20281.30.072.5
20291.30.072.5
20301.30.082.5

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kamas2020252003
Wellington 31720252012
Promontory1120251970
Ant Flat-Ogden Can920251999
Leamington720171993
Newcastle720251997
Jericho Junction620102006
Moab620251986
Delta620251987
Castleton519851974
Gandy520151997
Woodruff420252007
Boulder420251968
Callao420251998
Goose Creek Mtn.420252003
Hanna420241997
Bullfrog Bay420082008
Goshen320251974
Stock Res320191986
Beaver320251979
Iron Springs320231980
Vernon320252010
Gooseberry320241997
Wellington320022002
Johnson Can320241991

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.