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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Bullock's Oriole in Nebraska has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+44%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Nebraska is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.02–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Nebraska is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.02–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.010.46
20270.230.010.46
20280.240.010.46
20290.240.010.47
20300.240.020.47

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalton1120251969
Murray Lake420251988
Oglala Nat. Grass.320152002
Gordon220072001
Agate 2220242004
Crawford220141981
Agate219991979
Kimball120151978
Benkelman120252025
Arthur120241985
Crescent Lk120252005
Pine Ridge120241999
Berea120101980
Hay Springs120232019
Paxton119791979
Brownson120252025
Johnstown119821982
Piester Lake120242024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.