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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Montana has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Montana. See the full index history below.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.59–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.59–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.571.8
20261.20.571.8
20271.20.581.8
20281.20.591.8
20291.20.591.8

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chuffey Spring1920242016
St Xavier 21620232017
Jordan1320241968
Clyde Park1320242018
Brandenberg1020191968
Reed Point720241977
Forsyth620231980
Laurel620221968
Miles City620242015
Highwood520241968
St Xavier520101979
Powderville520241972
Brusett420241983
Pablo Res.420242005
Church Hill420242017
Threemile Wa420231998
Pryor Mtn.420132007
Custer 2420242024
Polson320241988
Ingomar320241970
Ninemile320151994
Chinook320242016
Wolf Creek320222015
Sun River320182015
Wheat Basin320242017

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasnebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.