BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in North Dakota has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+36%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bullock's Oriole Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Bullock's Oriole Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in North Dakota is projected to fall about 18% by 2023 — from 0.06 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in North Dakota is projected to fall about 18% by 2023 — from 0.06 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.050.000.12
20200.050.000.12
20210.050.000.12
20220.050.000.12
20230.050.000.12

Bullock's Oriole Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooperstown319971997
Gorham220162016
Golva220181987
Dunn Center219961990
Solen220052005
Roosevelt Pk120072007
Glen Ullin119921988
Dickinson120131982
Tobacco119901990
Bowman120001986

Bullock's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.