BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Steller's Jay in Arizona has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has surged in Arizona: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Arizona is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.86–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.86–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Arizona is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.86–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.824.2
20272.50.834.2
20282.50.844.2
20292.50.854.2
20302.50.864.2

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine2520251992
Flagstaff2420251988
Sprucedale2220251992
Happy Jack1720251977
Mormon Lake1619751968
Williams1520251993
Tonto Vill.1520251994
Sawmill1120141988
Mt. Graham1120251995
Pinetop1020221993
Tsaile1020231993
Blue819911974
Maine620251992
Portal520251975
Forest Lakes420251992
Prescott320221976
Zeniff219721968
Aztec Peak219781974
Patagonia219681968
Round Rock119711971
Yampai119711971
Rucker120031993
Sunizona119831983
Dry Park120251992
Carr Mtn120081987

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.