BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Arizona has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has risen sharply in Arizona: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Arizona is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.77–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.77–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Arizona is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.77–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.744.1
20262.40.754.1
20272.40.764.1
20282.40.774.1
20292.40.774.1

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy Jack3620241977
Sprucedale3520231992
Mormon Lake1619751968
Flagstaff1420221988
Portal1220241975
Sawmill1120141988
Alpine1120231992
Williams1020191993
Forest Lakes1020241992
Pinetop1020221993
Tsaile1020231993
Blue819911974
Mt. Graham820231995
Maine620241992
Prescott320221976
Zeniff219721968
Aztec Peak219781974
Patagonia219681968
Tonto Vill.220191994
Round Rock119711971
Yampai119711971
Rucker120031993
Sunizona119831983
Dry Park120241992
Carr Mtn120081987

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.