BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Steller's Jay in Colorado has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-23%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 0.49–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 0.49–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.462.6
20271.50.472.6
20281.50.482.6
20291.50.482.6
20301.50.492.6

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dolores Riv1920251988
Cortez 21920092009
Blackhead Pk1520251991
Mount Evans1520241997
Comanche Pk1120241995
Yampa1020231990
Pagosa Spgs919821968
Guanella Pas920251992
Guffey820251990
Gold Hill820121998
Elbert720251998
Weston Pass 2720252001
Deadman Rd.620251992
Wet Mtns.620251993
Groundhog Rs620251992
Fox Creek620251993
Stillwater Pass620091998
Gold Hill 2620252018
Maybell519701970
Parlin520221968
Tarryall520251988
Lizard Head Pass520252001
Lost Lake420241995
Pinon420251992
Piedra420251992

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniaidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.