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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Steller's Jay in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-72%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Alaska is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Alaska is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.710.002.8
20270.680.002.7
20280.650.002.7
20290.610.002.7
20300.580.002.7

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mitkof Isle3120251988
Zimovia Strt1420251988
Thorne Bay 21320252016
Craig1220251983
Harlequin L.920241993
Haines820251972
Zarembo820241993
Sitka (Short)819921985
Petersburg819871987
Juneau Alt519861984
Kuiu Island420102004
Ketchikan420221971
Beaver Creek419771977
Chichagof Is420241994
Hyder420061994
Alpenglow (Short)420031999
Hope420221997
Whale Pass320241997
Cordova320241983
Wrangell (Short)319841984
Thorne Bay320121991
Stikine River220241998
Juneau220251983
Hoonah220241993
Kalifonsky219821982

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.