BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Steller's Jay in Montana has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has collapsed in Montana: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Montana is projected to rise about 89% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Montana is projected to rise about 89% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.46
20270.160.000.46
20280.160.000.46
20290.160.000.46
20300.160.000.46

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skalkaho619981992
Greenough420031996
Arlee320221968
Elliston320191968
Hebgen Lake320252022
Painted Rock320221992
Logan Pass220241980
Cramer Creek220052005
Clinton220251972
Chestnut220021989
Whitefish Lake220242016
Libby Dam120021979
Kalispell120172011
Victor120211993
Threemile Wa120251994
Elevation Mt120222009
St Regis120231977
Polson120001996
Woodman120231968
Inside Road120222009
Sula120221986
Skalkho-Rye120221999
Swan Lake120242016
Greenoagh 2120112011
Greenoagh 3120252016

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.