BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Montana has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-73%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has fallen sharply in Montana: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Montana is projected to rise about 183% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+183%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Montana is projected to rise about 183% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.47
20260.170.000.47
20270.170.000.47
20280.170.000.47
20290.170.000.47

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skalkaho619981992
Greenough420031996
Arlee320221968
Clinton320231972
Elliston320191968
Painted Rock320221992
Logan Pass220241980
Cramer Creek220052005
Chestnut220021989
Whitefish Lake220242016
Libby Dam120021979
Kalispell120172011
Victor120211993
Threemile Wa120211994
Elevation Mt120222009
St Regis120231977
Polson120001996
Woodman120231968
Inside Road120222009
Sula120221986
Skalkho-Rye120221999
Swan Lake120242016
Greenoagh 2120112011
Greenoagh 3120222016
Thompson Riv120221993

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.