BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Idaho has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-78%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has collapsed in Idaho: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Idaho is projected to rise about 98% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±470.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+98%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±470.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Idaho is projected to rise about 98% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±470.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.000.93
20260.330.000.93
20270.330.000.92
20280.320.000.91
20290.320.000.91

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tractor Flat1019941994
Pierce420071990
Cape Horn320052000
Baldy Mountain320162013
Yellow Pine320121993
Sunbeam320131998
Mivoden220231977
Deep Creek219851985
Cascade219841984
Rochat Divde220231993
Centerville220161972
Alturas219871968
Burgdorf220151988
Nezperce Nf219991992
Naples120241979
Avery120231979
Nezperce120121969
Lolo Pass120191992
Grangeville120231986
Golden120141989
Challis120241978
Leadore120192003
N Fork Cda R120131995
Squirrel120021992
Magic Mtn119971997

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.