BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Steller's Jay in New Mexico has surged: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+188%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has surged in New Mexico: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in New Mexico is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.3–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in New Mexico is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.3–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.23.7
20272.51.23.7
20282.51.33.8
20292.51.33.8
20302.61.33.8

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Steller's Jay in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cloudcroft4820251975
Reserve3720251993
Angel Fire 21720252005
Angel Fire1220021992
Emory Pass1120251993
Ojo Sarco920251968
Gallinas820251992
Mt. Taylor 2720242014
Bluewater Lake720211999
Cebolla420231973
La Cienega319731973
Mt. Taylor320121993
Pecos220171978
Claunch219991977
Dulce220152000
Stinking Lk.219991994
Vallecitos220251994
Fence Lake120161975
Horse Mtn119881968
Carrizozo120151977
Magdalena120032003
Mcgaffey120231994
Vicks Peak120251992
Capitan Mtn.120102007
Pinon120161994

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.