BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Steller's Jay in Washington has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has surged in Washington: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 3.1–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 3.1–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.93.04.9
20274.03.04.9
20284.03.04.9
20294.03.14.9
20304.03.15.0

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raymond 22520242022
Ilwaco2420251975
Cougar2320231968
Snowden1420251971
Rainier1420251993
Leavenworth1320241981
South Elma1320241984
Carnation1320251989
Mendota 21220001989
Mendota 31220252005
Newhalem1120251969
Camas1020181971
Greenwater1020252015
Taholah920221969
Glacier920241975
Everett920251977
Bunker Hill820251968
Kamilche720251969
Raymond720211993
Montesand720241987
Ozette620251971
Kendall620251981
Mendota619881977
Cedar Falls620141992
L. Wenatchee620251993

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.