BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Washington has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has surged in Washington: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 3.0–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 3.0–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.94.8
20263.93.04.8
20273.93.04.9
20284.03.04.9
20294.03.04.9

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raymond 22520242022
Cougar2320231968
Kendall2020241981
Carnation1520241989
Port Angeles1320241970
Leavenworth1320241981
South Elma1320241984
Kamilche1220241969
Mukilteo1220241993
Mendota 21220001989
Snowden1120241971
Camas1020181971
Ilwaco1020241975
Taholah920221969
Glacier920241975
Everett920241977
Rimrock820241968
Mt St Helens820241992
Rainier820191993
Mendota 3820242005
Packwood720241975
Raymond720211993
Montesand720241987
Ozette620241971
Newhalem620241969

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.