BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Oregon has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Oregon is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 4.7–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Oregon is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 4.7–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.74.68.9
20266.84.68.9
20276.84.69.0
20286.84.69.0
20296.94.79.0

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elkton4520241972
Hazel Camp4320221975
Secret Val2920221975
Ruch2820231992
Klickitat Mt2819961993
Cinderella2720241993
Wedderburn2620241970
Clearwater2420211991
Barnes Val2319871971
Blue River2320241992
Selma2220241993
Fisher2220101997
Days Creek2120241970
Glasgow2120241986
Myrtle Grove1720241992
Harlan 21720242011
Winberry1620231968
Donnelly1620061994
Sandy River1620061993
Bull Run1620242007
Svensen1519921990
Cool Camp1420131968
Garfield1420231974
Nicolai Mtn.1420241993
Prospect1420241993

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.