BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Steller's Jay in Oregon has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.8 (95% range 4.7–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.8 (95% range 4.7–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.74.68.9
20276.84.68.9
20286.84.68.9
20296.84.79.0
20306.84.79.0

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lobster Creek4820252025
Hazel Camp4320221975
Elkton3620251972
Wedderburn3420251970
Cinderella3020251993
Klickitat Mt2819961993
Selma2820251993
Blue River2620251992
Bull Run2620252007
Barnes Val2319871971
Clearwater2220251991
Ruch2220251992
Fisher2220101997
Days Creek2020251970
Wallowa1820252025
Prospect1820251993
Secret Val1720251975
Myrtle Grove1720241992
Winberry1620231968
Glasgow1620251986
Lorane1620251993
Donnelly1620061994
Sandy River1620061993
Svensen1519921990
Cool Camp1420131968

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.