BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Wyoming has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-64%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Steller's Jay has fallen sharply in Wyoming: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Wyoming is projected to fall about 59% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Wyoming is projected to fall about 59% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.030.000.15
20240.030.000.15
20250.030.000.14
20260.030.000.14
20270.020.000.14

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Savery519891989
Riverside320002000
Bucknum320071999
Savery 2320222017
Ne Entrance220051989
Soda Lake220191980
Buckskin Mtn220211981
Fletcher Pk220161979
Meadowdale219921992
Yellowstone120191987
Brookhurst119811972
Buford120101978
Mammoth120161986
Hunter Peak120081983
Moose120151984
Bald Mtn119991991
Crazy Woman119971997
Recluse120071991
Alpine120151979
Horse Creek120221982
Moran120152015
Warbonnet120051995
Ryan Park120111993

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.