BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Utah has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-34%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Steller's Jay Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Utah. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Utah is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Utah is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.001.1
20260.420.001.1
20270.420.001.1
20280.420.001.1
20290.410.001.1

Steller's Jay Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alton 21920212021
Bryce Canyon1220241990
Navajo Lake1220241968
La Sal1120001993
Castleton619761973
Dixie Nf620241993
Heber Mtn.620231998
Willow Creek420022002
Moon Lake420032002
Gooseberry420231996
Ferron420212002
Alton320181997
Uintah Nf319901990
La Sal 3320242007
Beck219871971
Lost Cr. Res220082000
Oak City220161972
Logan Canyon220122012
Woodruff220212002
Soapstone220132010
Fayette220211993
Richfield220191994
Ant Flat-Ogden Can220011996
Wasatch Nf220022001
Bonanza219921992

Steller's Jay Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.