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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mexican Jay Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Mexican Jay in Arizona has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mexican Jay Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mexican Jay in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Mexican Jay Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Jay in Arizona is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mexican Jay in Arizona is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.007.9
20272.10.007.9
20282.00.007.8
20291.90.007.7
20301.80.007.6

Mexican Jay Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mexican Jay in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rucker9420091993
Dragoon6920091993
Tonto Vill.4620252004
Sprucedale4220252000
Portal2120251975
Peña Blanca1720251975
Sunizona1419971968
Patagonia1020251968
Aztec Peak819781974
Forest Lakes620161996
Carr Mtn520251985
Blue419891976
Yampai319721972
Sunizona 2320252001
Redington220231994
Mt. Graham120221996

Mexican Jay Population Trend in Other States

new-mexicotexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.