BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mexican Jay Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Mexican Jay in Arizona has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mexican Jay Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mexican Jay in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Mexican Jay Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Jay in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mexican Jay in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.008.0
20262.00.007.9
20271.90.007.8
20281.90.007.7
20291.80.007.6

Mexican Jay Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mexican Jay in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rucker9420091993
Dragoon6920091993
Portal3220241975
Tonto Vill.2020212004
Patagonia1720241968
Sunizona1419971968
Peña Blanca1320241975
Aztec Peak819781974
Carr Mtn820221985
Forest Lakes620161996
Sunizona 2520242001
Blue419891976
Sprucedale420232000
Yampai319721972
Redington220231994
Mt. Graham120221996

Mexican Jay Population Trend in Other States

new-mexicotexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.