BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mexican Jay Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Mexican Jay in Arizona has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-14%Since 1970
16Routes In State
56Years

Notable Mexican Jay Trends in Arizona

No notable trend signals for Mexican Jay in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Mexican Jay Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Jay in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029
1.8Projected 2029 index
0.00–7.695% range
±38.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.10.008.0
20262.00.007.9
20271.90.007.8
20281.90.007.7
20291.80.007.6

Mexican Jay Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mexican Jay in Arizona.
Rucker9420091993
Dragoon6920091993
Portal3220241975
Tonto Vill.2020212004
Patagonia1720241968
Sunizona1419971968
Peña Blanca1320241975
Aztec Peak819781974
Carr Mtn820221985
Forest Lakes620161996
Sunizona 2520242001
Blue419891976
Sprucedale420232000
Yampai319721972
Redington220231994
Mt. Graham120221996

Mexican Jay Population Trend in Other States

new-mexicotexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.