BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-billed Hummingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Broad-billed Hummingbird in Arizona has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+137%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-billed Hummingbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-billed Hummingbird has surged in Arizona: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Broad-billed Hummingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Broad-billed Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-billed Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.030.30
20260.170.030.30
20270.170.030.30
20280.170.030.31
20290.170.030.31

Broad-billed Hummingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Broad-billed Hummingbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patagonia520241968
Sunizona219801970
Mt. Graham220041996
Peña Blanca220241987
Portal120212015
Red Rock120112011
Redington120232002
Amado120221993
Mcneal120232022
Pomerene120242008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.