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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-billed Hummingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Broad-billed Hummingbird in Arizona has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+145%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Broad-billed Hummingbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-billed Hummingbird has surged in Arizona: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Broad-billed Hummingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Broad-billed Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-billed Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.040.31
20270.180.040.32
20280.180.040.32
20290.180.040.32
20300.180.040.32

Broad-billed Hummingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Broad-billed Hummingbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patagonia720251968
Pomerene320252008
Sunizona219801970
Mt. Graham220041996
Portal120212015
Red Rock120112011
Redington120232002
Amado120221993
Mcneal120232022
Peña Blanca120251987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.