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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bridled Titmouse Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Bridled Titmouse in Arizona has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+41%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bridled Titmouse Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bridled Titmouse in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Bridled Titmouse Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Bridled Titmouse in Arizona is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.76 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bridled Titmouse in Arizona is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.76 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.002.4
20270.610.002.3
20280.590.002.3
20290.560.002.3
20300.540.002.3

Bridled Titmouse Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Bridled Titmouse in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sunizona1019971970
Portal920251975
Tonto Vill.920252001
Patagonia820251968
Dragoon520091993
Peña Blanca420241975
Rucker320081993
Mormon Lake319681968
Pomerene319951995
Carr Mtn320251985
Prescott220251974
Redington220231993
Mt. Graham220182018
Aztec Peak119771977
Blue119861975
Skull Valley120242002
Bartlett Res120022001
Sunizona 2120232001
Sprucedale120172006

Bridled Titmouse Population Trend in Other States

new-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.