BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Arizona has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-91%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pinyon Jay Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has collapsed in Arizona: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Arizona is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±236%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±236%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Arizona is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±236%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0011
20260.000.0011
20270.000.0011
20280.000.0011
20290.000.0011

Pinyon Jay Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
House Rock11320221968
Yampai5019771969
Toroweap4520241994
Mt Trumbull3419931974
Tsaile3020231993
Flagstaff2320221988
Hunt1720061971
Rose Wells1419771968
Page1220191996
Black Mesa1119951988
Sawmill920081988
Blue819911975
Cow Springs820211992
Kaibito720241995
Mormon Lake619751968
Williams620171993
Sprucedale619981993
The Gap519751969
Zeniff519841973
Maine420241992
Greasewood420031993
Forest Lakes420241992
Round Rock319891969
Navajo Trail220231994
Peach Spring220241993

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.