BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Montana has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-90%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pinyon Jay Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has collapsed in Montana: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Montana is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±357.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±357.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Montana is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±357.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.87
20260.130.000.86
20270.120.000.85
20280.110.000.84
20290.110.000.84

Pinyon Jay Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willow Creek1119801972
Reed Point920191977
Custer 2820242024
Two Dot519961980
Willow Creek 2420211988
Brusett319891983
Forsyth220081980
Laurel220221994
Brandenberg220061971
Jordan220111971
Boulder220231969
Pryor Mtn.120192005
Bull Mtn.120161995
Leroy120131991
Shawmut120182004

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.