BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Colorado has surged: up 260% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+260%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pinyon Jay Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has surged in Colorado: up 260% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Colorado is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Colorado is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.004.1
20261.90.004.1
20271.90.004.1
20281.90.004.1
20291.90.004.1

Pinyon Jay Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Guffey8520241990
Lay6020241997
Wray Gulch4920231988
Buford2819951981
Baxter Pass2220241995
Ninaview1720012000
Pinos Creek1619881988
Summitville1420181993
Wilson Creek1320231992
Dolores1219871968
Antonito1120002000
Wet Mtns.1120241993
Animas1020031996
Moon Pass1020242003
Animas 2920182005
Cokedale920241995
Gardner920241998
Dinosaur720241995
Ludlow720161998
Trinchera620211990
Piedra620122009
Basin520241995
Fox Creek520231995
Piceance Basin520061998
Rifle Falls520181998

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.